Abstract:
Specific features of foresight
expert forecasting methods make them ineffective for compresided
analysis of enterprise innovation activity. This determined the
urgency of developing a deterministic method for predicting the
results of innovative activities of the corporation resulting from
the simulation of production indicators.
The paper considers modelling of innovation process
quantitative characteristics, aimed at the industrial enterprises
innovative activity evaluation under implementation of a specific
investment project. In the process of modelling operations used a
production function. To account for the specificity of industrial
production basic production function modified with regard to
material resources and influence of "autonomous" technical
progress is Hicks-neutral. The developed algorithm of solution the
Mendershausen multicollinearity effect. Credibility built
industrial plant test confirmed by the consent of the criteria of
operational models.
The author's method of estimation of innovative activity of
industrial enterprises in implementation of innovation project on
the basis of dynamics of indicators of the elasticity of
production. The proposed method allows to reflect the economic
result from the introduction of a specific innovation project.
The research results are recommended for practical use in the selection of investment projects and for integrated assessment of corporate governance through the additional key performance indicator.
Keywords:economic and mathematical model of an industrial production; corporate foresight; production function; innovation activity evaluation.
Fulltext:
PDF file (385 kB)