Short Communication
Mathematical Modeling, Numerical Methods and Software Complexes

Stochastic model for forecasting the dynamics of gross regional product and regional production resources

L. A. Saraev, A. V. Yuklasova

Samara National Research University, Samara, 443086, Russian Federation

Abstract: The article presents a stochastic model for forecasting dynamics of gross regional product (GRP), developed using statistical data from Samara Region for the period 1998–2023. The model enables assessment of investment impact on regional economic development. To describe GRP dynamics, we propose a stochastic differential balance equation that relates GRP indicators to regional production resource (RPR) volumes. Within the study, we have: (1) estimated RPR volumes, (2) constructed theoretical trajectories of GRP and RPR dynamics, and (3) derived mathematical expectation curves for their growth. Numerical analysis demonstrates the model's high consistency with empirical data.

Keywords: gross regional product, regional production resources, investment coefficient, depreciation rate, Cobb–Douglas production function, stochastic differential equation, stochastic trajectories

UDC: 519.868

MSC: 91B64, 91B70, 37N40, 62P20

Received: November 5, 2024
Revised: March 21, 2025
Accepted: April 15, 2025
First online: June 3, 2025

DOI: 10.14498/vsgtu2128

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