Mathematical Modeling

Application of the Mathematical Models Used for Estimating the Impact Probability of Asteroids 99942 Apophis and 2011 AG5

A. E. Derevyanka

Samara State Technical University, Samara, 443100, Russia

Abstract: Methods for estimating the impact probability of asteroids 99942 Apophis and 2011 AG5 were implemented. The probability of a collision was assessed using two methods: The Monte Carlo method(statistical experiments), and as a ratio between the interval of values of orbital elements, leading to a collision, and the confidence intervals of orbital elements. It was established that the main contribution to the estimation of the impact probability makes a variation in the semimajor axis. The expected date and the estimate of the probability of collisions of asteroids 99942 Apophis and 2011 AG5 with the Earth were computed.

Keywords: 99942 Apophis, 2011 AG5, impact probability, orbital elements, The Monte Carlo method.

UDC: 519.245, 521.1, 521.3

MSC: Primary 85-08; Secondary 70M20, 65C05

Original article submitted 21/V/2013
revision submitted – 25/VIII/2013

DOI: 10.14498/vsgtu1256

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