PHYSICS

Earthquake precursors in the theory of criticality of geodeformations

B. M. Shevtsov, O. V. Sheremetyeva

Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Radio Wave Propagation FEB RAS

Abstract: Earthquake precursors are considered as resonant manifestations of critical geodeformations, dislocation changes of which are responsible for the anomalous properties of both the deformations themselves and the physical processes generated by them, which play the role of indicators of earthquake preparation. Taking into account the vortex nature of shear dislocations, it is shown that critical geodeformations are a transition to a turbulent state of rheological flows in the area of the formation of a seismic event focus. Earthquake precursors are classified according to their direct or indirect relation to dislocation changes and it is shown that the probability of earthquake prediction depends on this. Within the framework of the criticality theory, the mechanisms of formation of earthquake precursors and the causes of their anomalous properties are discussed. In conclusion, the results of fractional differential modeling of various phases of seismicity and model verification using data from the seismic catalog are considered.

Keywords: earthquake precursors, critical geodeformations, anomalous physical phenomena, scaling, dislocation changes, seismoacoustic vibrations, electrification of rocks, electromagnetic emission, electrode effect in the atmosphere, displacement currents, ionospheric disturbances, fractional Poisson process, seismic process, Mittag-Leffler's function, approximation, statistical model, fractional model.

UDC: 534, 537.2, 537.86, 539.3, 550.34, 519.254, 519.651, 519.654

MSC: Primary 60G22; Secondary 37M10, 33E12

Received: 20.10.2025
Revised: 03.12.2025
Accepted: 02.12.2025

DOI: 10.26117/2079-6641-2025-53-4-142-167