SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SYSTEMS MANAGEMENT

Theoretical aspects of modeling and forecasting of the regional economic dynamics based on a limited array of statistical data

A. V. Koshkarov

Astrakhan State Technical University

Abstract: The efficiency of management and planning in the regions depends on the application of models of socio-economic dynamics as a tool for decision making. Their application is especially approved when there is no statistical data necessary for modeling and forecasting of processes of economic dynamics in the region, or when the statistics is distorted. It is recommended to use forecasting rules worked out by N. D. Kondratiev, the principles of system dynamics by J. Forrester, a method of simulation for modeling and forecasting in the case of a limited array of statistics. The paper offers the structure of the corresponding forecasting model.

Keywords: economic dynamics, forecasting of economic dynamics, regional socio-economic dynamics, regional economics, modeling.

UDC: 332.144

Received: 08.11.2011
Revised: 12.12.2011