Control in Social and Economic Systems

Estimation of rare events probability in mob behavior

A. D. Rogatkin

Institute of Control Sciences of RAS

Abstract: We developе a collective behavior model proposed in [2]. The model is a generalization of the M. Granovetter’s conformity threshold behavior model for the case of uncertainty in agents’ threshold values. We estimate the probability of exit of a system from a given set of states (i.e. in mob excitation) using an asymptot-ic result derived in [8]. Theoretical estimations of large deviations type are refined using numerical estimations obtained with the help of statistical simulations. Obtained results allow us to estimate stability of excitation prevention in the cases when the probabilities of events are too small for using statistical simulations. We give recommendations on the choice of parameters which guarantee a given probability threshold of exit of the system from a given set of states.

Keywords: M. Granovetter’s model, conformity collective be-havior, mob control, large deviations, statistical simulations.

UDC: 51-77
BBK: 60.55.372

Received: March 30, 2016
Published: September 30, 2016

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