Abstract:
The oligopolistic Russian market of bank lending to individuals is considered from the point of view of interaction of players. The Herfindahl-Hirschman index is calculated, proving that the Russian banking market is oligopolistic. The interaction of large banks is described using volumetric hypothetical variations, that is, players' assumptions about the influence of their actions on the behavior of competitors regarding the volumes of loans issued to individuals. Volumetric hypothetical variations in the work are calculated on the basis of empirical data. Statistical data for calculations are taken from official reports of banks. In this case, two cases are considered. In the first case, hypothetical variations of the largest oligopolist in the market in relation to the competitive environment, that is, to other market players or to other banks, are considered. In the second case, hypothetical variations of the largest oligopolist in relation to each individual competitor, that is, a bank, are considered. For both cases, the dependences of the players' volumetric hypothetical variations on the shares of banks' lending volumes are presented. The main result obtained is that the largest bank's volumetric hypothetical variations are positive, i.e., competitors will respond to the bank's expansion of lending volumes by expanding their own lending volumes and vice versa.
Keywords:banks, personal lending, conjectural variations, oligopoly.
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