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JOURNALS // Upravlenie Bol'shimi Sistemami // Archive

UBS, 2024 Issue 111, Pages 179–196 (Mi ubs1230)

Control in Social and Economic Systems

Developing group and individual performance paths based on e-learning platform data

A. Yu. Vladovaab

a V. A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow
b Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow

Abstract: Maintaining a high level of education is a key task in university management. Despite continuous monitoring of student performance, educational institution management fails to adequately utilize performance forecasting methods when shaping student learning paths. The proposed approach differs from existing ones in several aspects. Firstly, it analyzes features containing grades for various assignments completed by students on the e-learning platform, expanding the feature space by normalizing grades on a single scale and creating new features: an index and changes in performance for different types of assignments. Secondly, it identifies students at academic risk. Thirdly, it predicts exam scores for each student using a linear regression model. Fourthly, it groups students with similar learning trajectories for personalized consultations. The approach to predicting exam results for individual students demonstrates a commitment to providing comprehensive support beyond simple assessment. Through analysis, modeling, and personalized consultations, the research aims to proactively enhance academic performance in university settings.

Keywords: academic performance, statistical analysis, linear discriminant analysis, regression, learning trajectories, distant learning system

UDC: 65.012.4 + 681
BBK: 65.9

Received: March 27, 2024
Published: September 30, 2024

DOI: 10.25728/ubs.2024.111.7



© Steklov Math. Inst. of RAS, 2026