Abstract:
The aim of this work is to evaluate the effectiveness of the widespread use of medical masks to control the epidemic. The epidemic spread is described by the model SEIQRD (susceptible – exposed – infected – quarantined – recovered – deaths), where the key variables responsible for the epidemic development are divided into 2 groups: complined and noncomplined to mask regime. The baseline reproduction rate, elasticities to model parameters, and the minimum percentage of the population that needs to adhere to the mask regime to prevent the epidemic are calculated for the model. Model parameters are estimated using statistical data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Moscow and then scenarios of the epidemic development with different degrees of mask compliance are numerically simulated.
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