Abstract:
We offer a new approach to analysis and economic safety management in socioeconomic
systems (SES) on the basis of a new scientific discipline “top-economics” as further
development of works by Nobel Prize Laureates J. Buchanan and J. Heckman. We introduce
the “invalidity” concept by analogy with reliability and safety in engineering. We use new
Boolean events-propositions and new LP risk models for economic safety management.
Logical and probabilistic (LP) risk models of SES take into account initiating events (IEs),
which depend on the state, business, science and society, and signal events about changes in
economics, politics, law, innovations, natural disasters and wars, global market fluctuations in
order to correct probabilities of IEs.
We have performed generalizations in the development of hybrid LP-models for
estimation and analysis of SES failure risk. Properties, advantages and features of “invalidity”
and “top-economics” have been determined. Examples of the following hybrid LP risk models
of SESs have been developed: counteraction to corruption, counteraction to drug addiction,
country’s innovation system management.
We present examples of scenarios of failure of subjects (government, business, scientists
and society) that solve the problem, and objects (tasks) that are the essence of the problem.
Structural, logical and probabilistic risk models of SESs failure are stated. Software “Expa”
(for synthesis of probabilities of events in hybrid LP-models using expert information) and
“Arbiter” (for structural and logical modeling of hybrid LP risk models) are described.
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