Abstract:
In conditions when new innovative products appear constantly, there is a need for implementing more effective planning and production systems activity management by means of formalization level increase while describing the processes related to formation of production portfolio of a production system. The aim of the article is to solve the scheduling problem and to define requirements for the projects and their flow, which allow the production system to function effectively in conditions of environment uncertainty. The methods of simulation modeling, system analysis, statistical processing of the received results are applied for the purpose of their generalization and machine learning for search and classification of projects and routes of the possible development of production systems. As a result of the research, the model has been obtained, that allows determining empirically the projects and trajectories of the production systems development for the given characteristics of the projects, which will lead to the effective functioning of the systems on the basis of using historical data about the implemented projects to take into account the specifics of the considered system. A number of statements have been formulated that allow us to specify the problem considered in the article and to designate the described approach applicability limits. Knowledge received about the stream of projects and the projects themselves will allow formulating requirements for projects and activities connected with the search and development of new products. The greatest value of the described research lies in the fact that the obtained results show a decrease in the significance of expert assessments when choosing projects and setting targets, as well as a possibility of transition to formal methods, which leads to increasing the objectivity of the obtained assessments.
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