Abstract:
A model of a multi-criteria optimization problem under parametric expert uncertainty is considered. This model is useful when the expert cannot set an exact value for a parameter with expert uncertainty. To describe such parameters, the uncertainty theory is applied. It provides analytical expressions for calculating deterministic duplicates of objective functions and constraints, which allows us to effectively solve optimization problems with expert uncertainty, reducing undefined optimization models to deterministic models of mathematical programming. The problem of preliminary calculation of supersonic jet aircraft parameters at the preliminary design stage is formalized and solved using the considered model. The relevance of applying the uncertainty theory to this problem relates to the increased role of the preliminary design stage in the development of advanced aircrafts. A numerical optimization algorithm has been developed and implemented that takes into account expert estimates of uncertain parameters and allows us to obtain the values of the technical characteristics of the developed aircraft with different levels of degree of belief in their implementation.
Keywords:expert uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, model of an optimization problem, preliminary design, Pareto solutions, deterministic equivalent, maneuverable aircraft, uncertainty programming.
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