Abstract:
This article is devoted to the study of changes in the main indicators of the level of the unemployed population. The dynamics of the officially registered number of unemployed aged 15–72 years is analyzed. The relevance of this work was that the problem of unemployment is a very important problem in our society. Without solving the problem of unemployment, it is impossible to find solutions to improve not only the economic, but also the moral, moral and spiritual situation in Russia. The purpose of this work was to build a forecast model for the development of the number of unemployed in the Perm Region. It is shown that there was a good correlation between the wages of employees, the number of the population, the growth of high-performance jobs, the cost of a fixed set of consumer goods and services, the age composition of the population older than the able-bodied, the migration growth of the population and the growth rate of the number of unemployed in the Perm Region. The analysis made it possible to construct a linear multivariate model and a model in the state space. It is shown that these models cannot be used to predict the number of unemployed, due to poor predictive properties (the sum of the squares of deviations for a linear multivariate model in this case is 0.295, for a model in the state space – 2.354). At the same time, a regression-differential model of the change in the number of unemployed aged 15-72 years in the Perm Region was built. The obtained data showed that for this model, the sum of the squared deviations is 0.091. This suggests that the regression-differential model best describes the number of unemployed people aged 15–72 years in the Perm Region. Based on the obtained model, a forecast of the distribution of the number of unemployed in the region under consideration for 2021 and 2022 was made. The results obtained indicate that there will be a positive trend in reducing the number of unemployed. Over 7 years, it will decrease by 21.8%.
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