Cognitive factor modeling and its use to study complex processes occurring in the cryolithozone

V. I. Baluta, S. S. Varykhanov, V. P. Osipov, Yu. G. Rykov, B. N. Chetverushkin

Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow

Abstract: The modeling approach based on the concept of a fuzzy cognitive map for studying complex processes occurring in the permafrost zone has been specified. This approach represents the corresponding complex system as an oriented graph, where the vertices correspond to factors and the edges represent causal relationships between them. Mathematical properties related to the distribution of input factor influence in the cognitive map have been described. The influence concept has also been generalized for interactions between internal factors. A specialized model of the relationship between climatic factors and factors of permafrost soil structure and condition has been developed. The model weights have been calibrated using available observational data, allowing us to establish correlations mediated through the complex system.

Keywords: complex system, cognitive factor modeling, weighted digraph, input and internal factors, degree of influence, weakly structured situation, cryolithozone, permafrost.

Received: 03.06.2025
Revised: 02.09.2025
Accepted: 08.09.2025

DOI: 10.20948/mm-2026-01-05