This article is cited in 9 papers

Mathematical model of spread of HIV-infection in population with dynamic risk of infection

E. A. Nosova^a, A. A. Romanyukha<sup>b

a</sup> Federal Public Health Institute
^b Institnute of Numerical Mathematics Russian Academy of Sciences

Abstract: The purpose of the research is development of methods of effectiveness assessment for the HIV-infection control in Russia. Existing approaches to modeling the spread of HIV were based on the assumption that individual risk of infection is constant. In this paper we propose a model of the virus spread in a population with a dynamic risk. The dynamics of risk described by models of formation of alcohol and drug abuse — the main factors of HIV spread in Russia. The paper discusses the main findings include: statistical data analysis, model the dynamics of HIV risk and the problem of identifying model parameters according to the regions of Russia.

Keywords: mathematical model, HIV epidemiology, dynamic risk.

UDC: 519.711.2:619.2-036.2

Received: 22.09.2012

 English version: Mathematical Models and Computer Simulations, 2013, 5:4, 379–393

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