Two epidemic models of malaria and their practical applications

Victor V. Zakharov, Serigne Modou Ndiaye

Saint Petersburg State University

Abstract: Based on data on the annual incidence of malaria in Senegal in the period from 2000 to 2021, the article demonstrates the possibilities of predicting the annual dynamics of the epidemic using the $SIR$ model and the $CIR$ model. A modified $SIR$ model with constant coefficients is constructed, and a description of the $CIR$ balance model with stochastic parameters is given. The question of the accuracy of forecasting the annual statistical indicators of the epidemic when using these models is investigated. As numerical experiments show, the average error in predicting the annual number of sick people compared to actual statistical data when using the $SIR$ model is quite large, while the $CIR$ model generates more accurate forecasts when compared.

Keywords: epidemic model of malaria, $SIR$ model, prediction of active cases of the disease, epidemic balance model, dynamic balance principle, $CIR$ model.

UDC: 519.837
BBK: 22.18

Received: 17.05.2023
Revised: 01.06.2023
Accepted: 15.06.2023