Information and Computer Technologies in Biology and Medicine

Mathematical modelling of the spread of COVID-19, taking into account the distribution of asymptomatic cases between actually asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic cases

I. D. Kolesin, E. M. Zhitkova

St. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russia

Abstract: The possibility of representation in a dynamic model of the three types of SARS-CoV-2 infection: asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic and symptomatic is studied. Furthermore, a compartmental model was proposed, with a branching of asymptomatic cases into pre-symptomatic and actually asymptomatic cases. Verification of the proposed model using data from the first wave of COVID-19 in St. Petersburg and the proportion of actually asymptomatic cases among all asymptomatic cases demonstrated adequate model behavior. The contribution of pre-symptomatic cases to the total number of symptomatic cases was studied. The need to account for the high proportion of asymptomatic carriers in strict quarantine was identified.

Key words: pre-symptomatic infection, quarantine, compartmental model.

Received 12.06.2023, 17.12.2023, Published 21.03.2024

DOI: 10.17537/2024.19.52

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