This article is cited in 3 papers

Mathematical Modeling

Modeling of gender differences in tuberculosis prevalence

V. Y. Kisselevskaya-Babinina^a, T. E. Sannikova^ab, A. A. Romanyukha^ba, A. S. Karkach<sup>b

a</sup> Moscow Institute of Physics and Mathematics
^b Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow

Abstract: Epidemiological studies have shown that gender differences in tuberculosis prevalence can be explained by physiological, behavioral and social factors. In our work, the quantitative evaluation of the effect of such factors has been received. With this purpose, we developed a mathematical model of tuberculosis dynamics in two-gender population. The model consists of twelve nonlinear differential equations and describes such epidemiological processes as tuberculosis transmission from infectious individuals to susceptible ones, the activation of latent diseases, public health actions in revealing and treating tuberculosis cases. This model has been fitted to data for Moscow. The results of parameter identification demonstrate that low prevalence of tuberculosis among females is mainly accounted for by higher natural resistance to mycobacterium. Higher rate of tuberculosis revealing and more effective treatment in females can be attributed to behavioral factors.

Key words: tuberculosis, TB, mathematical model, gender-associated behavior.

UDC: 51-76

Received 04.05.2018, Published 18.07.2018

DOI: 10.17537/2018.13.308