Computational Mathematics

Modeling the sales volume of compulsory liability insurance policies of hazardous facility owners

M. O. Sokolov, N. N. Ovchinnikova, E. I. Nazarova

South Ural State University, Chelyabinsk, Russian Federation

Abstract: This paper performs modeling the sales forecast of compulsory insurance policies of hazardous production facilities for an insurance company in the Chelyabinsk region. The time series analysis of insurance policy sales was carried out and the data were tested for normal distribution and stationarity. ARIMA and SARIMA models were used to generate a forecast. The developed models were validated and demonstrated good forecast quality, confirming their practical applicability for assessing insurance sales dynamics.

Keywords: modeling, forecast, insurance policies, statistics.

UDC: 519.2

MSC: 91B84

Received: 15.11.2025

Language: English

DOI: 10.14529/jcem250404