MATH MODELING

SD-ABM approach based on extended multigraphs for modeling food security

S. V. Pronichkin^ab, S. V. Solodov^c, V. L. Arlazarov<sup>a

a</sup> Federal Research Center "Computer Science and Control" of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
^b Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
^c National University of Science and Technology MISIS, Moscow, Russia

Abstract: This study proposes a comprehensive methodology for modeling the food security system based on the synthesis of system dynamics methods (SD), agent-based modeling (ABM) and the mathematical apparatus of extended multigraphs. An integrated hierarchical model has been developed, where the system-dynamic component formalizes long-term cause-and-effect relationships and balance loops (stock accumulation, soil fertility dynamics, financial flows), the agent-based component with fuzzy logic represents the behavior of heterogeneous actors (producers, logisticians, regulators), and extended multigraphs provide detailed modeling of asynchronous, parallel and spatio-temporal dependent trade flows of agricultural products, taking into account the ambiguity of information and multiple alternatives. The results demon- strate the effectiveness of the proposed platform for analyzing critical dependencies, identifying bottlenecks in supply chains, scenario forecasting and synthesizing adaptive management strategies that help increase the resilience of the national food security system to external shocks.

Keywords: food security, system dynamics, multi-agent modeling, extended multigraphs.

Language: English

DOI: 10.14357/20718632250405

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