A. F. Rezchikov, M. S. Polyakov, V. A. Kushnikov, A. S. Bogomolov, O. I. Dranko, D. I. Putilov, I. A. Stepanovskaya, “Mathematical models for analyzing and predicting the dynamics of the main characteristics of the road transport system with the correction procedure”, Izv. Saratov Univ. Math. Mech. Inform., 2025, Volume 25, Issue 4,Pages <nobr>578

Scientific Part
Computer Sciences

Mathematical models for analyzing and predicting the dynamics of the main characteristics of the road transport system with the correction procedure

A. F. Rezchikov^a, M. S. Polyakov^b, V. A. Kushnikov^b, A. S. Bogomolov^bc, O. I. Dranko^a, D. I. Putilov^c, I. A. Stepanovskaya^a

^a V. A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of RAS, 65 Profsoyuznaya St., Moscow 117997, Russia
^b Federal Research Center “Saratov Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Science”, 24B Rabochaya St., Saratov 410028, Russia
^c Saratov State University, 83 Astrakhanskaya St., Saratov 410012, Russia

Abstract: This article discusses a set of mathematical models that utilize the system-dynamic approach. We have created a set of interconnected system dynamics models, enabling us to forecast key road safety indicators in Russia. These indicators were carefully chosen by referring to the regulatory documents of the State Traffic Inspectorate under the Ministry of Internal Affairs in Russia. The findings will be used to enhance the traffic control systems' software.

Key words: road transport network, system dynamics models, safety, cause-and-effect relationship, analysis, forecasting.

UDC: 519.7

Received: 22.12.2024
Accepted: 05.05.2025

Language: English

DOI: 10.18500/1816-9791-2025-25-4-578-588