Epidemic spreading model in heterogeneous conditions

A. V. Podlazov


Abstract: I propose two modifications of the SIR model of the epidemic spread, taking into account the social and space heterogeneity of the population. Social heterogeneity associated with differences in the intensity of paired contacts between people qualitatively changes the basic reproductive number. Space heterogeneity associated with differences in the intensity of multiple contacts between people significantly shifts the equilibrium position, increases the characteristic times and leads to the emergence of oscillatory dynamics of finite duration.

Keywords: epidemiology, compartmental models, SIR-model, basic reproduction number, super-spreaders, epidemic waves, herb immunity.

DOI: 10.20948/prepr-2021-103