This article is cited in 2 papers

Construction of system dynamics models in conditions of limited expert information

O. G. Kantor^a, S. I. Spivak<sup>b

a</sup> Institute of Social and Economic Researches of Ufa Scientific Centre RAS; 71 Av. Oktyabrya, Ufa 450054, Russian Federation
^b Bashkir State University, 32 Validy Str., Ufa 450076, Russian Federation

Abstract: System dynamics is a methodology for studying of complex dynamic systems focused on conducting computer simulations. Construction of system dynamics models is largely dependent on the available experimental information and expert judgments. A simulation experiment with “bad” models can lead to significant or even total distortion of the system properties. This paper describes a method of constructing the system dynamics models, which is a set of mathematical models, based on the idea of the Kantorovich approach to the mathematical treatment of experimental data, and computational procedures. An important advantage is the possibility of including in the model significant conditions which are important to researcher and affect model adequacy. The developed method was tested on the example of the Russian population.

Keywords: system dynamics models; point and interval estimation of model parameters; the Kantorovich approach; the maximum permissible error of measurement.

Received: 25.10.2013

DOI: 10.14357/19922264140211

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